* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 67 65 60 54 49 43 41 36 35 32 32 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 67 65 60 54 49 43 41 36 35 32 32 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 67 64 59 55 51 47 44 42 41 40 39 39 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 16 16 14 20 26 21 23 18 23 26 23 18 13 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 4 4 -2 -5 5 2 3 1 3 2 4 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 259 246 253 257 252 246 246 251 265 264 263 271 270 289 300 283 275 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.6 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 115 115 113 111 108 109 115 116 119 127 127 133 143 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 107 107 104 102 98 99 104 105 107 112 111 115 123 126 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 56 53 45 40 38 36 38 33 35 34 41 43 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 19 17 17 15 15 12 11 8 8 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 43 32 13 14 9 -6 -31 -33 -53 -50 -73 -67 -71 -33 -17 -2 -52 200 MB DIV 49 51 51 50 34 -11 -21 -4 -13 -11 -10 -14 25 -1 17 -21 -6 700-850 TADV -2 3 4 1 1 9 7 -1 6 0 2 1 0 1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 753 865 977 1066 1142 1325 1495 1659 1833 2027 2208 2383 2459 2457 2422 2340 2263 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.8 29.7 31.4 33.0 34.7 36.6 38.4 40.1 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 6 16 11 16 27 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -11. -17. -19. -23. -23. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -27. -29. -34. -35. -38. -38. -36. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.9 24.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.81 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.6% 10.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 5.0% 3.5% 3.6% 1.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.6% 4.7% 4.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 69 67 65 60 54 49 43 41 36 35 32 32 34 36 39 18HR AGO 70 69 69 67 65 60 54 49 43 41 36 35 32 32 34 36 39 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 57 51 46 40 38 33 32 29 29 31 33 36 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 53 47 42 36 34 29 28 25 25 27 29 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT