* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 128 128 125 119 110 104 101 98 94 95 94 94 94 93 92 V (KT) LAND 130 129 128 128 125 119 110 104 101 98 94 95 94 94 94 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 124 121 118 112 102 91 83 77 73 72 74 75 76 76 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 2 2 6 4 4 9 10 12 11 11 9 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 5 8 13 14 11 7 3 2 3 5 6 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 12 39 125 333 1 327 308 331 306 307 291 272 270 270 298 280 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 152 150 145 139 135 133 131 131 130 129 126 124 126 128 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -50.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 57 57 59 58 62 62 62 60 61 61 58 54 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 35 36 37 37 40 38 37 39 40 38 41 41 42 42 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 56 47 45 48 47 57 51 59 52 65 72 84 88 101 91 110 107 200 MB DIV 38 42 38 33 34 31 9 53 16 28 9 13 26 26 -8 16 -11 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 6 8 11 12 13 11 11 10 12 12 13 11 8 9 LAND (KM) 2178 2050 1923 1828 1733 1583 1466 1384 1304 1247 1192 1140 1113 1095 1067 1024 1011 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.7 135.9 137.0 137.9 138.7 140.0 141.0 141.7 142.4 142.9 143.4 143.9 144.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 42 55 38 28 20 12 9 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -26. -37. -46. -54. -61. -65. -66. -67. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 2. 4. 2. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -20. -26. -29. -31. -36. -35. -36. -36. -36. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.4 134.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 881.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 8 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##