* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 112 110 109 108 113 116 119 119 127 127 132 133 136 137 V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 112 110 109 108 113 116 119 119 127 127 132 133 136 137 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 113 112 112 113 116 119 121 121 120 123 130 143 155 160 162 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 13 14 15 8 10 9 15 13 9 10 9 12 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -3 -3 2 0 2 6 10 2 2 -3 -7 -7 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 240 242 252 253 257 258 237 242 237 261 227 241 221 233 218 238 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.3 30.3 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 159 160 162 163 161 160 158 162 166 168 169 162 165 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.3 -49.4 -48.7 -49.1 -48.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 12 12 13 11 13 11 11 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 52 51 51 48 49 47 50 49 50 48 51 46 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 24 24 26 24 27 28 31 31 36 37 44 46 50 55 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 2 4 -8 -10 -8 13 23 40 42 49 65 93 124 158 182 200 MB DIV 29 26 19 14 17 13 1 28 13 -13 30 5 20 24 65 51 30 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 5 4 2 3 3 4 3 2 0 1 1 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 1901 1917 1936 1963 1993 2046 2100 2172 2254 2344 2435 2536 2637 2709 2729 2547 2371 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 178.5 178.8 179.0 179.3 179.6 180.1 180.6 181.3 182.1 183.0 183.9 184.9 185.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 4 9 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 39 32 29 29 32 35 38 43 39 36 39 35 38 27 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -36. -35. -34. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 17. 19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 5. 7. 11. 11. 17. 16. 22. 22. 23. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -2. 1. 4. 4. 12. 12. 18. 18. 21. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 20.3 178.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 809.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.4% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 6.1% 6.8% 8.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##