* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 83 78 73 68 66 71 75 74 74 73 75 72 70 69 70 V (KT) LAND 100 90 83 78 73 68 66 71 75 74 74 73 75 72 70 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 100 91 84 79 76 70 65 63 61 58 56 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 20 24 25 20 21 14 15 11 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 -1 2 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 237 239 222 216 225 214 222 215 271 281 261 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 141 144 144 141 137 137 137 134 133 126 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 58 58 58 58 59 57 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 27 26 25 27 26 29 30 30 30 30 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 51 54 58 54 55 62 54 55 48 45 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 20 9 37 55 23 20 31 32 7 12 45 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 7 6 13 11 11 12 19 19 21 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 575 514 463 415 385 351 338 365 398 475 634 832 1048 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.8 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.5 27.8 29.3 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.3 149.9 150.5 151.2 151.9 153.4 154.9 156.3 157.8 159.4 160.9 162.3 163.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 14 20 22 11 9 11 13 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -33. -35. -37. -38. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -13. -12. -10. -9. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -22. -27. -32. -34. -29. -25. -26. -26. -27. -25. -28. -30. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 149.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 592.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##