* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 82 75 72 65 62 66 68 68 66 65 66 63 61 60 61 V (KT) LAND 100 90 82 75 72 65 62 66 68 68 66 65 66 63 61 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 100 90 82 76 71 64 58 55 53 51 50 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 22 25 28 25 21 21 18 16 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 5 2 5 -2 4 1 2 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 228 229 233 226 221 233 228 223 236 274 272 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.3 26.7 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 141 144 143 139 139 137 135 137 130 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 62 61 59 60 57 58 56 54 54 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 25 25 24 27 27 27 26 26 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 52 58 50 50 57 59 62 57 44 37 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 49 24 8 33 32 19 13 15 10 -9 15 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 13 7 5 11 7 8 7 6 13 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 577 512 446 394 327 289 316 354 420 554 715 891 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.9 26.0 27.1 28.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.3 149.9 150.6 151.3 152.8 154.4 155.9 157.5 159.1 160.7 162.2 163.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 18 12 14 19 17 9 13 12 6 8 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. -36. -37. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. -21. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -3. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -28. -35. -38. -34. -32. -32. -34. -35. -34. -37. -39. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.6 148.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 540.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##