* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 62 66 69 70 67 64 60 56 52 50 45 43 41 43 41 V (KT) LAND 50 57 62 66 69 70 67 64 60 56 52 50 45 43 41 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 62 66 68 67 63 59 55 52 50 49 47 46 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 4 4 11 18 19 17 21 20 20 22 24 28 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 13 11 11 8 3 0 4 7 2 3 1 5 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 45 87 154 200 217 237 237 241 242 239 255 261 265 264 261 273 286 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 129 123 119 114 111 110 109 112 115 115 118 123 128 133 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 125 117 113 107 103 102 101 102 105 105 107 111 115 118 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 64 60 55 49 40 34 35 29 30 29 33 34 43 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 22 22 21 20 19 19 17 18 15 15 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 72 70 58 49 40 32 35 17 9 1 -13 -5 -22 -7 -22 -3 10 200 MB DIV 46 47 60 62 65 46 4 -19 -16 1 -14 -15 -4 -15 -4 -6 26 700-850 TADV -15 -11 -8 -6 -4 1 12 13 9 6 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 363 451 551 664 781 1027 1231 1447 1657 1860 2064 2270 2249 2196 2175 2160 2028 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.1 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.5 26.5 28.6 30.8 32.9 34.9 36.9 38.9 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 12 13 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -13. -13. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 17. 14. 10. 6. 2. 0. -5. -7. -9. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 20.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 12.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.94 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.45 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.9% 46.3% 36.3% 24.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.9% 33.4% 31.3% 24.8% 6.3% 10.6% 2.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.5% 5.0% 10.4% 0.8% 1.7% 3.7% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 15.7% 28.2% 26.0% 16.7% 5.2% 4.8% 1.3% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/30/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 62 66 69 70 67 64 60 56 52 50 45 43 41 43 41 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 61 62 59 56 52 48 44 42 37 35 33 35 33 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 54 51 48 44 40 36 34 29 27 25 27 25 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 44 41 38 34 30 26 24 19 17 15 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT