* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 117 115 113 108 109 110 109 105 104 105 105 104 102 104 103 V (KT) LAND 120 117 117 115 113 108 109 110 109 105 104 105 105 104 102 104 103 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 117 115 113 109 105 101 94 86 82 80 80 79 80 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 6 7 9 6 5 3 2 10 3 3 5 10 11 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 9 4 7 7 4 0 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 335 351 3 2 3 341 60 49 310 322 291 275 281 257 257 262 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 154 157 153 152 143 138 135 134 134 134 133 135 131 127 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 56 56 54 58 62 65 65 65 63 61 62 61 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 34 34 35 36 38 38 38 37 38 40 42 42 41 45 44 850 MB ENV VOR 47 41 47 61 72 61 67 70 72 70 74 86 99 112 126 125 127 200 MB DIV 78 67 68 72 37 36 28 48 20 12 21 19 18 21 23 20 -4 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -5 -2 -5 0 6 10 10 8 3 5 5 4 5 13 8 LAND (KM) 2062 2130 2184 2252 2326 2131 1910 1730 1586 1475 1374 1285 1215 1144 1077 1017 977 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.8 129.0 130.2 131.5 132.7 135.1 137.1 138.7 140.0 141.0 141.9 142.7 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 43 53 29 23 26 25 52 24 15 8 8 8 9 8 8 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -41. -47. -50. -51. -52. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -0. 3. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -5. -7. -12. -11. -10. -11. -15. -16. -15. -15. -16. -18. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.4 127.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 709.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.04 -0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.35 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 20.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.9% 6.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##