* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062015 08/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 48 51 56 57 58 57 55 54 49 50 47 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 48 51 56 57 58 57 55 54 49 50 47 49 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 51 56 57 57 54 51 48 45 44 44 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 8 6 6 9 15 16 17 17 18 15 15 18 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 7 0 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 31 65 91 97 152 204 212 232 235 244 244 245 252 250 250 246 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 26.0 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 136 136 122 118 115 113 114 111 114 117 116 119 123 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 131 132 132 116 111 108 104 105 103 105 108 108 111 115 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 70 64 62 57 51 47 45 40 41 35 36 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 15 17 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 60 67 61 44 30 36 7 0 7 -4 0 0 4 -2 1 200 MB DIV 43 18 24 27 30 32 27 27 1 -1 2 5 2 6 -15 18 -3 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -6 -4 -6 -2 2 8 5 9 2 8 1 4 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 184 281 340 408 495 699 920 1161 1377 1566 1768 1962 2187 2107 1973 1864 1766 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.9 25.8 27.9 29.9 31.8 33.8 35.7 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 10 8 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 2 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -12. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 21. 22. 23. 22. 20. 19. 14. 15. 12. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 18.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 SIX 08/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 21.3% 12.7% 9.1% 5.6% 10.4% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 41.1% 32.2% 23.5% 11.9% 22.6% 12.7% 3.5% Bayesian: 11.2% 39.6% 21.9% 3.6% 2.2% 15.3% 8.6% 0.2% Consensus: 11.6% 34.0% 22.3% 12.1% 6.6% 16.1% 11.5% 1.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 SIX 08/30/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 48 51 56 57 58 57 55 54 49 50 47 49 50 51 18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 45 50 51 52 51 49 48 43 44 41 43 44 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 43 44 43 41 40 35 36 33 35 36 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 34 35 34 32 31 26 27 24 26 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT