* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 107 109 107 105 106 112 113 112 110 110 111 110 111 108 104 V (KT) LAND 115 110 107 109 107 105 106 112 113 112 110 110 111 110 111 108 104 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 108 107 106 103 101 99 95 91 85 82 81 84 89 88 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 8 7 11 5 6 3 7 6 2 1 7 12 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 2 4 7 9 11 7 7 7 5 0 -3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 319 345 359 6 3 16 60 58 45 327 342 297 280 245 255 254 239 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 160 157 155 149 148 146 140 136 134 134 133 132 131 132 131 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -49.7 -50.3 -49.8 -50.4 -49.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 54 54 54 55 58 61 61 64 63 66 67 69 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 36 35 37 38 40 38 39 39 40 42 43 46 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 44 53 63 64 65 69 82 82 81 80 104 112 118 114 114 200 MB DIV 103 60 68 77 64 23 29 29 49 9 43 32 28 22 51 18 27 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -6 -10 -9 -7 3 7 9 8 5 3 4 3 2 7 15 LAND (KM) 2019 2084 2143 2199 2261 2230 1998 1798 1630 1506 1406 1325 1255 1207 1171 1142 1135 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.2 129.3 130.5 131.7 134.2 136.3 138.1 139.6 140.7 141.6 142.3 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 47 50 27 23 16 42 30 19 10 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -46. -47. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 11. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 12. 14. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -6. -8. -10. -9. -3. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.1 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.06 -0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 19.9% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##