* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 122 117 110 96 85 77 73 75 72 68 66 64 63 64 67 V (KT) LAND 120 123 122 117 110 96 85 77 73 75 72 68 66 64 63 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 120 121 118 112 106 93 82 73 67 65 62 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 15 14 14 20 23 24 17 19 20 21 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 1 5 8 6 0 2 3 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 247 258 252 236 241 211 232 222 227 227 239 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 145 145 146 143 143 142 139 136 139 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 58 58 58 61 59 60 58 61 61 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 26 27 27 27 26 28 27 26 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 40 47 52 67 54 57 54 69 60 66 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 0 3 21 53 15 39 10 13 37 33 27 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 10 6 8 6 10 7 8 13 18 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 757 666 577 494 339 255 215 221 265 312 418 574 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 25.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.0 148.7 149.4 150.1 151.6 153.0 154.4 155.9 157.3 158.9 160.4 162.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 33 30 22 23 22 16 18 15 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -22. -31. -39. -45. -50. -53. -53. -54. -55. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -9. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -3. -10. -24. -35. -43. -47. -45. -48. -52. -54. -56. -57. -56. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 16.7 147.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 762.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 4.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/30/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 44 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##