* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 137 139 139 135 124 119 115 114 111 109 106 104 100 102 98 97 V (KT) LAND 130 137 139 139 135 124 119 115 114 111 109 106 104 100 102 98 97 V (KT) LGEM 130 135 136 134 132 123 115 108 99 92 89 87 87 85 86 85 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 10 9 10 8 6 4 4 0 6 6 3 7 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 4 8 11 10 9 2 3 3 4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 329 340 350 355 353 354 11 29 31 65 308 284 321 255 245 247 262 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 158 158 154 151 146 148 141 137 134 134 133 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 56 56 58 62 64 63 63 63 65 69 67 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 33 34 34 39 40 41 40 40 42 44 42 46 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR 37 52 56 60 58 68 74 80 85 99 100 110 111 126 122 132 129 200 MB DIV 102 130 100 59 66 85 53 42 42 67 17 37 18 31 37 44 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -6 -5 -5 -2 7 7 8 4 1 1 3 4 10 16 LAND (KM) 1936 1983 2034 2090 2145 2244 2288 2053 1852 1686 1573 1481 1412 1353 1303 1266 1245 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.1 127.0 128.0 129.1 131.3 133.7 135.8 137.6 139.1 140.1 140.9 141.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 40 44 54 23 19 26 40 22 15 9 7 6 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -22. -32. -41. -48. -54. -58. -59. -60. -62. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 14. 14. 15. 16. 13. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 9. 5. -6. -11. -15. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -30. -28. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 12.3 125.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 650.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.3% 11.5% 11.2% 9.8% 14.6% 5.0% 5.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 58.4% 17.3% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.5% 9.6% 4.2% 3.8% 4.9% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##