* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 136 142 141 140 132 123 115 114 113 110 105 98 93 94 92 92 V (KT) LAND 125 136 142 141 140 132 123 115 114 113 110 105 98 93 94 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 125 136 139 139 137 132 125 113 104 100 96 93 87 85 86 84 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 8 9 13 13 6 8 8 7 10 13 11 7 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 3 5 5 6 7 3 5 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 14 356 4 3 357 6 360 12 33 52 22 20 11 9 308 265 250 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 159 157 157 153 146 148 142 137 134 132 131 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 61 58 55 53 56 55 56 55 55 57 61 62 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 29 33 37 37 37 39 41 41 42 41 41 45 45 45 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 51 55 66 73 85 81 86 87 101 105 115 120 128 121 116 200 MB DIV 91 104 120 116 97 94 48 43 -3 55 22 31 13 16 6 34 16 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 -6 -7 -1 5 2 5 2 1 4 6 9 16 LAND (KM) 1894 1950 2010 2062 2118 2215 2335 2118 1894 1715 1581 1468 1410 1384 1356 1329 1307 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.4 126.3 127.3 128.3 130.5 132.9 135.2 137.2 138.8 140.0 141.0 141.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 2 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 40 40 46 28 21 17 46 23 16 9 7 6 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -19. -29. -37. -43. -49. -52. -54. -55. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 11. 15. 14. 12. 7. 1. -5. -8. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 16. 14. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 17. 16. 15. 7. -2. -10. -11. -12. -15. -20. -27. -32. -31. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 12.2 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -20.0 to 40.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.8% 41.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 70.2% 42.2% 47.6% 47.7% 60.9% 19.1% 18.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 44.7% 13.8% 4.6% 6.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 60.9% 32.5% 17.4% 18.0% 20.5% 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##