* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 92 95 99 98 94 90 85 80 75 74 73 73 74 76 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 92 95 99 98 94 90 85 80 75 74 73 73 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 86 89 91 95 96 92 86 79 72 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 5 5 3 8 13 17 20 23 21 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -5 -7 -2 0 4 3 2 2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 58 308 314 278 256 233 243 205 217 210 220 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.7 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 146 144 143 145 144 143 139 135 140 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 60 60 61 62 62 63 59 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 28 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 44 46 43 45 61 71 69 73 80 82 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 25 22 21 28 4 52 42 44 29 44 37 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 2 2 4 7 14 12 7 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1163 1071 980 884 788 603 429 281 180 157 181 230 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.7 146.4 147.2 147.9 149.4 150.8 152.1 153.4 154.7 155.9 157.1 158.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 23 24 26 26 35 26 28 31 18 13 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 18. 14. 10. 5. 0. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.0 144.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 22.0% 32.0% 19.5% 17.4% 21.4% 6.3% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 12.5% 1.8% 0.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##