* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 34 34 34 41 43 52 56 62 67 70 70 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 40 42 36 33 31 33 40 42 51 43 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 40 33 31 33 33 35 39 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 31 29 28 26 12 11 12 15 16 18 22 23 29 34 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -4 -9 1 -7 -3 -4 -6 -2 -7 -2 -6 -3 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 277 289 304 309 311 298 242 248 234 244 238 253 242 241 237 244 240 SST (C) 29.6 30.6 30.0 30.4 30.9 30.5 30.5 31.1 31.3 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.4 31.3 31.2 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 174 172 174 173 172 171 170 170 169 169 168 168 167 167 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 174 171 174 173 167 162 169 170 169 169 168 160 157 155 153 149 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 7 9 5 7 5 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 59 65 63 62 57 59 56 58 60 65 68 64 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 4 7 7 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 2 -19 -22 -32 -54 -35 -61 -37 -56 -32 -50 -35 -24 -4 12 24 200 MB DIV -4 9 15 22 20 14 32 21 36 11 32 32 28 31 22 6 25 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -10 -14 -12 -9 2 -4 2 4 1 10 0 0 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) -6 67 -18 -42 -36 13 90 39 5 -18 -20 -91 -111 -131 -160 -174 -195 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.6 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.1 28.2 29.2 30.1 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.5 75.0 76.5 77.9 80.1 81.4 82.1 82.5 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 14 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 75 64 61 59 70 53 72 80 67 44 8 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 30. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -11. -8. -10. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. 1. 3. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 30. 26. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 72.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 30.0 to 128.0 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 1.5% 1.2% 5.5% 9.6% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 36 33 31 33 40 42 51 43 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 33 30 28 30 37 39 48 40 31 27 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 31 33 40 42 51 43 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 30 37 39 48 40 31 27 25 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT