* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 93 102 110 118 129 132 127 119 116 113 109 102 97 98 97 96 V (KT) LAND 85 93 102 110 118 129 132 127 119 116 113 109 102 97 98 97 96 V (KT) LGEM 85 94 102 109 116 128 132 129 121 112 106 100 93 91 94 98 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 5 6 6 7 11 10 6 8 8 9 9 6 6 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -5 -2 4 7 8 6 6 1 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 16 43 60 23 19 33 10 356 6 7 66 33 357 353 18 339 285 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.7 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 155 153 151 149 141 145 143 140 137 138 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 62 60 55 54 53 54 55 55 55 57 61 62 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 35 38 37 38 41 42 44 43 42 46 47 46 850 MB ENV VOR 18 32 46 54 62 80 88 95 82 76 84 93 104 116 123 140 141 200 MB DIV 73 103 99 114 118 81 97 50 47 34 50 19 24 13 29 48 50 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -7 -6 2 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 5 LAND (KM) 1763 1821 1883 1937 1995 2090 2183 2298 2128 1905 1729 1589 1489 1433 1374 1314 1257 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.6 125.6 126.5 128.3 130.5 132.8 135.0 137.0 138.6 139.9 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 11 11 9 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 29 31 34 38 22 19 13 34 26 20 12 11 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 21. 22. 23. 21. 18. 19. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 33. 44. 47. 42. 34. 31. 28. 24. 17. 12. 13. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 12.3 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.75 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.9% 57.6% 51.1% 48.3% 40.9% 40.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.6% 32.0% 24.3% 16.9% 17.6% 12.8% 16.8% 1.1% Bayesian: 63.5% 86.1% 88.5% 81.0% 22.1% 11.5% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 42.3% 58.5% 54.6% 48.7% 26.8% 21.7% 6.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##