* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 39 38 39 43 47 51 54 59 64 68 71 70 70 68 V (KT) LAND 45 38 39 33 32 29 36 40 44 48 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 38 40 39 33 30 33 35 39 43 36 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 32 29 26 19 7 12 10 16 17 23 23 24 26 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 277 278 287 303 309 313 281 248 212 235 224 244 229 230 216 220 218 SST (C) 29.1 29.7 30.6 29.9 30.4 31.3 30.4 30.6 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.2 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 166 174 170 173 172 171 171 170 170 169 169 168 167 168 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 166 174 167 173 172 161 162 168 170 169 167 167 165 164 155 146 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 9 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 57 60 66 65 61 60 57 59 59 66 67 73 73 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 3 -19 -25 -45 -39 -44 -33 -41 -21 -38 -20 -22 12 17 26 200 MB DIV 4 -8 8 1 14 16 24 17 18 25 20 33 32 31 44 8 38 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -10 -10 -7 -9 3 -4 1 -1 3 3 1 3 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 69 -30 56 -5 -49 -29 39 79 45 2 -15 -26 -69 -94 -99 -93 -98 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.7 22.0 23.3 24.5 25.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.9 73.4 74.8 76.3 78.7 80.2 81.4 82.1 82.4 82.5 82.5 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 11 9 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 44 50 74 62 64 69 73 54 70 79 68 37 17 10 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -2. 2. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 25. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.6 70.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.6 to -2.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 2.9% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 38 39 33 32 29 36 40 44 48 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 45 39 38 35 42 46 50 54 44 38 35 33 33 33 33 12HR AGO 45 42 41 35 34 31 38 42 46 50 40 34 31 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 38 42 46 50 40 34 31 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT