* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 89 98 108 116 127 130 129 122 112 109 104 99 96 93 93 91 V (KT) LAND 80 89 98 108 116 127 130 129 122 112 109 104 99 96 93 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 80 90 99 106 114 125 131 131 122 109 100 93 85 82 84 86 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 7 2 5 6 5 9 9 8 9 6 7 4 9 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -7 -2 -1 1 9 12 14 9 7 6 6 1 SHEAR DIR 356 15 29 35 357 355 24 339 337 5 38 26 348 310 305 328 273 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 157 157 155 152 150 145 142 143 142 137 136 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 66 63 58 56 55 56 59 62 62 62 63 64 66 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 27 28 30 33 37 38 36 38 39 40 41 42 44 44 850 MB ENV VOR 7 16 26 44 46 52 70 75 73 77 75 80 81 91 107 138 140 200 MB DIV 74 71 84 101 111 107 114 90 66 60 21 48 37 32 31 28 16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -3 7 9 8 3 2 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 1694 1755 1821 1875 1933 2037 2141 2238 2247 2001 1810 1654 1555 1499 1422 1334 1247 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.6 123.6 124.6 125.5 127.4 129.5 131.7 133.9 136.1 137.8 139.2 140.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 8 6 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 29 28 31 35 33 20 13 23 27 27 18 12 9 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 19. 23. 20. 23. 23. 22. 20. 20. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 36. 47. 50. 49. 42. 32. 29. 24. 19. 16. 13. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.3 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 13.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.68 10.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 10.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.52 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 51.6% 66.5% 61.5% 55.2% 45.3% 51.0% 37.5% 0.0% Logistic: 42.7% 70.1% 60.0% 53.1% 54.3% 49.6% 42.6% 3.6% Bayesian: 68.2% 89.7% 90.7% 87.0% 29.3% 63.5% 13.7% 0.2% Consensus: 54.2% 75.4% 70.8% 65.1% 43.0% 54.7% 31.3% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##