* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 87 91 97 103 104 104 97 95 88 85 81 81 81 82 83 V (KT) LAND 80 83 87 91 97 103 104 104 97 95 88 85 81 81 81 82 83 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 85 88 92 99 104 102 97 91 84 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 4 2 4 4 5 12 14 18 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -6 -3 1 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 77 83 83 76 336 270 199 239 214 235 222 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 149 144 142 144 144 144 141 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 63 60 59 60 62 62 59 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 24 26 27 28 30 28 30 28 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 38 45 42 42 43 58 65 82 63 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 39 25 29 19 14 3 41 34 42 36 35 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 5 9 9 6 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1363 1261 1160 1060 961 782 610 431 274 154 143 152 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.3 145.1 145.9 146.7 148.1 149.5 150.9 152.2 153.5 154.7 155.9 157.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 24 23 24 27 34 29 32 36 21 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 8. 10. 7. 8. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 23. 24. 24. 17. 15. 8. 5. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.9 143.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 17.6% 37.1% 20.9% 17.8% 15.9% 6.6% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 15.8% 2.8% 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##