* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 69 74 79 82 80 87 89 92 97 103 105 109 111 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 69 74 79 82 80 87 89 92 97 103 105 109 111 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 65 67 71 77 83 89 94 98 102 108 116 121 123 126 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 17 15 9 11 9 13 12 12 11 14 11 9 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 -2 0 -5 3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 246 248 245 254 259 240 252 236 224 249 261 264 250 244 258 277 268 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 158 160 159 152 152 152 152 147 144 144 151 152 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 56 56 60 62 59 57 55 56 54 54 53 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 17 19 20 19 23 25 26 30 34 35 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 37 31 30 28 9 5 -4 -15 -31 -19 -24 0 15 42 48 200 MB DIV -5 1 -2 -16 -11 13 8 15 5 33 13 7 6 22 8 40 27 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -7 -6 0 3 3 5 5 6 4 3 2 3 4 6 LAND (KM) 1157 1226 1295 1363 1432 1566 1671 1761 1825 1864 1911 1964 2022 2148 2311 2382 2454 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.7 23.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.2 170.9 171.6 172.3 173.1 174.6 175.9 177.0 177.8 178.3 178.8 179.3 179.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 8 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 50 55 62 50 39 41 42 38 22 16 16 27 38 40 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 18. 20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 4. 10. 12. 13. 16. 19. 18. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 22. 20. 27. 29. 32. 37. 43. 45. 49. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 170.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.8% 6.6% 4.0% 2.4% 4.2% 6.0% 11.9% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.9% 1.5% 1.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##