* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 81 91 102 112 127 131 130 123 116 113 107 103 98 94 91 91 V (KT) LAND 70 81 91 102 112 127 131 130 123 116 113 107 103 98 94 91 91 V (KT) LGEM 70 81 91 100 109 124 134 136 128 116 106 100 95 91 87 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 8 6 9 8 11 12 7 10 7 8 10 8 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 1 7 9 11 9 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 360 2 29 51 54 21 4 358 342 348 15 25 20 342 332 302 302 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.5 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 157 156 153 150 150 141 145 144 141 137 136 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 66 61 57 58 58 60 61 60 58 59 61 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 26 28 32 34 37 38 38 41 42 44 44 45 44 47 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 21 26 45 59 71 81 87 82 87 84 93 90 101 121 130 200 MB DIV 103 77 72 86 83 129 98 121 92 72 51 53 20 34 26 53 34 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 -9 -1 0 4 8 7 7 7 9 13 LAND (KM) 1628 1704 1769 1832 1898 2002 2105 2206 2320 2141 1938 1770 1647 1558 1490 1412 1346 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.7 124.7 126.5 128.4 130.6 132.8 134.9 136.7 138.2 139.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 10 9 7 5 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 31 29 30 35 38 22 20 12 34 27 26 18 12 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 80.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 20. 24. 24. 28. 27. 27. 25. 23. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 21. 32. 42. 57. 61. 60. 53. 46. 43. 37. 33. 28. 24. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.2 120.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 12.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 15.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.65 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 -10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.96 12.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 75% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 6.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 74.9% 83.6% 75.8% 70.9% 56.3% 63.8% 49.6% 0.0% Logistic: 72.6% 86.6% 79.2% 75.5% 77.6% 70.7% 51.7% 8.6% Bayesian: 83.0% 94.3% 95.1% 94.0% 77.5% 84.5% 43.7% 1.5% Consensus: 76.8% 88.2% 83.4% 80.1% 70.5% 73.0% 48.3% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##