* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 84 87 90 93 94 93 90 90 87 83 78 78 78 79 80 V (KT) LAND 80 81 84 87 90 93 94 93 90 90 87 83 78 78 78 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 82 84 86 91 94 95 93 89 85 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 13 13 5 3 9 10 16 14 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -7 -3 2 2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 82 77 76 93 132 280 262 241 234 213 227 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 149 149 148 147 144 142 144 145 146 142 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 69 64 62 61 62 63 64 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 23 24 24 26 26 26 28 28 27 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 38 39 37 35 29 33 42 58 67 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 70 58 34 24 13 10 -15 25 36 84 51 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 11 7 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1596 1482 1368 1266 1164 980 806 638 472 311 179 132 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.4 142.4 143.3 144.2 145.0 146.5 147.9 149.3 150.6 151.9 153.1 154.1 155.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 17 22 25 23 23 28 34 30 30 34 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 6. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 10. 10. 7. 3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.1 141.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 16.9% 23.6% 10.5% 8.3% 6.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.8% 13.8% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##