* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 67 76 85 100 112 114 117 116 116 114 110 107 103 101 101 V (KT) LAND 50 58 67 76 85 100 112 114 117 116 116 114 110 107 103 101 101 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 74 82 101 120 131 129 124 117 108 100 94 90 86 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 9 10 8 3 6 7 8 9 9 7 7 9 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 4 11 11 10 5 6 SHEAR DIR 328 323 351 12 29 84 31 9 358 5 349 2 25 29 356 332 309 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.7 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 160 160 160 158 155 150 152 144 142 141 140 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 72 70 67 63 58 57 55 54 57 58 59 60 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 20 21 27 27 31 33 36 39 39 41 40 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -4 -1 3 12 38 57 65 67 81 68 69 59 54 55 71 83 200 MB DIV 67 76 69 48 51 89 110 108 110 84 73 43 65 27 12 21 22 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 1 7 7 6 3 7 LAND (KM) 1448 1517 1594 1660 1723 1856 1988 2107 2199 2318 2180 1982 1823 1708 1628 1562 1505 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.4 120.6 121.7 122.8 124.8 126.7 128.5 130.4 132.6 134.6 136.3 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 8 6 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 32 34 31 28 30 30 19 22 14 23 24 24 26 19 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 16. 24. 27. 31. 32. 29. 29. 25. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 35. 50. 62. 64. 67. 66. 66. 64. 60. 57. 53. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.4 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 15.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -11.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.46 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 77% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 77% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.1% 70.6% 64.2% 55.7% 39.2% 76.7% 77.4% 64.0% Logistic: 49.7% 74.6% 63.2% 51.6% 48.9% 64.9% 71.1% 31.0% Bayesian: 30.9% 85.6% 77.0% 58.3% 48.4% 77.7% 68.0% 9.9% Consensus: 41.9% 76.9% 68.1% 55.2% 45.5% 73.1% 72.2% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##