* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 69 73 73 75 77 79 81 82 87 87 93 93 94 96 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 69 73 73 75 77 79 81 82 87 87 93 93 94 96 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 73 74 76 77 79 79 81 84 88 92 100 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 12 11 14 12 7 11 11 15 20 23 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 3 2 2 4 2 -1 -3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 253 237 234 225 239 256 235 241 242 249 244 243 235 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 149 154 157 154 152 157 159 157 149 151 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.1 -51.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 58 59 59 60 62 62 62 61 58 56 51 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 19 18 20 21 23 24 24 28 29 34 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 1 17 24 25 26 24 24 5 0 -4 1 18 34 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 12 25 6 16 14 -10 16 13 30 26 23 -10 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 2 -3 -1 0 2 2 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 996 1034 1078 1123 1228 1331 1435 1520 1605 1659 1706 1764 1993 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.9 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.3 168.7 169.0 169.5 169.9 171.0 172.2 173.4 174.5 175.6 176.3 176.8 177.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 53 55 56 57 53 55 50 38 50 51 31 19 19 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 17. 19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 15. 15. 18. 16. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 13. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 27. 27. 33. 33. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.7 168.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.8% 9.6% 7.6% 4.5% 6.9% 9.0% 12.5% 3.9% Bayesian: 1.0% 17.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1.7% 2.5% 7.1% 35.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##