* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 59 68 78 86 93 98 105 107 107 105 107 106 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 59 68 78 86 93 98 105 107 107 105 107 106 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 50 60 70 80 92 102 109 110 110 111 111 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 13 6 6 1 4 3 2 4 1 1 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 342 302 304 318 322 342 317 326 350 63 43 34 52 104 10 291 320 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 155 156 156 159 157 156 148 147 149 144 145 145 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 72 71 71 70 69 64 59 57 60 63 64 62 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 15 19 21 25 27 31 32 34 34 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -20 -15 -11 -5 17 39 50 56 63 66 64 65 70 87 118 200 MB DIV 31 26 19 32 40 52 65 71 86 83 135 105 87 73 70 67 63 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1312 1357 1390 1442 1503 1648 1778 1925 2075 2214 2299 2358 2171 1993 1853 1727 1612 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.5 116.8 118.0 119.2 121.5 123.6 125.6 127.6 129.6 131.4 133.2 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 59 29 22 24 27 33 29 29 32 23 17 19 15 24 27 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 16. 22. 24. 28. 27. 26. 23. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 29. 38. 48. 56. 63. 68. 75. 77. 77. 75. 77. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 114.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 THIRTEEN 08/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.93 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.80 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.32 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 28.4% 23.4% 18.8% 0.0% 19.8% 25.8% 51.7% Logistic: 12.9% 52.5% 32.9% 21.3% 25.5% 38.0% 69.5% 63.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 31.8% 6.2% 1.9% 1.4% 25.0% 31.1% 19.7% Consensus: 9.0% 37.6% 20.8% 14.0% 9.0% 27.6% 42.1% 45.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 THIRTEEN 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##