* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 79 85 90 89 90 88 89 86 87 84 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 79 85 90 89 90 88 89 86 87 84 83 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 77 85 92 96 96 97 96 93 88 85 82 81 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 15 12 11 13 13 16 9 10 7 9 10 13 19 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 1 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 -1 2 0 1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 105 92 106 110 109 104 88 107 129 159 222 194 226 222 235 249 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 152 150 148 148 146 145 142 143 140 140 141 140 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 62 64 68 66 62 57 55 56 57 59 56 56 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 17 18 19 19 21 21 23 23 26 24 26 24 25 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 71 72 67 54 55 63 63 73 63 68 65 67 70 72 70 68 74 200 MB DIV 65 63 56 49 40 55 32 22 12 11 21 23 34 58 24 11 27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 4 2 9 9 6 4 LAND (KM) 2215 2115 2015 1902 1790 1556 1353 1170 972 785 589 414 245 84 38 6 29 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.6 137.5 138.5 139.4 141.3 143.0 144.5 146.2 147.8 149.5 151.0 152.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 28 18 13 12 18 20 21 23 33 24 29 32 20 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 9. 9. 12. 10. 11. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 30. 35. 34. 35. 33. 34. 31. 32. 29. 28. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.8 135.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.48 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 -7.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.96 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.2% 62.3% 48.8% 33.5% 23.6% 35.8% 24.3% 13.3% Logistic: 38.0% 61.4% 41.0% 33.6% 39.8% 18.9% 8.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 26.5% 73.9% 51.9% 34.7% 50.1% 36.0% 15.2% 0.2% Consensus: 31.3% 65.9% 47.2% 33.9% 37.8% 30.2% 16.1% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##