* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 42 42 41 40 40 41 42 47 53 60 66 69 70 67 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 42 42 41 40 40 41 42 47 53 42 33 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 42 41 39 38 39 42 48 41 32 29 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 24 20 27 24 23 16 17 11 20 18 21 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -4 0 -2 0 1 -3 -2 -3 1 -2 0 -2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 284 264 277 291 298 290 289 278 285 288 248 242 215 222 214 233 230 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 30.7 31.1 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 146 149 154 153 154 156 157 171 171 170 170 168 161 163 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 144 147 151 149 147 147 145 169 171 151 148 142 134 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 12 12 11 12 10 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 51 54 53 56 59 62 66 62 63 60 63 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 15 18 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -24 -36 -33 -32 -42 -64 -81 -79 -44 -58 -33 -35 -2 -10 1 200 MB DIV 24 26 18 -5 5 24 7 13 16 31 40 26 45 43 47 57 65 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -9 -8 -10 -11 -9 -13 -11 -8 -1 -4 5 3 16 16 15 LAND (KM) 692 654 484 316 149 78 67 170 202 238 222 54 -48 -55 -46 -11 1 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.7 24.8 25.9 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.8 61.3 62.8 64.3 67.1 69.8 72.3 74.5 76.5 78.2 79.6 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 44 38 44 46 64 90 50 71 67 73 54 44 37 35 38 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 58.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.30 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.0% 9.9% 7.4% 4.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 5.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 3.8% 4.6% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 5.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 8.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.6% 4.1% 1.6% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 42 42 42 41 40 40 41 42 47 53 42 33 29 28 28 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 38 37 37 38 39 44 50 39 30 26 25 25 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 35 36 41 47 36 27 23 22 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 28 28 29 30 35 41 30 21 17 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT