* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 60 66 71 74 76 80 83 86 90 94 98 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 60 66 71 74 76 80 83 86 90 94 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 47 53 60 67 74 78 82 86 90 97 107 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 10 14 16 13 11 9 10 12 14 14 16 10 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 192 218 244 247 260 278 287 306 280 270 265 253 257 250 262 275 296 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 150 150 151 154 157 156 151 147 150 156 156 158 159 156 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 55 57 60 65 65 66 68 70 73 75 74 72 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 19 20 22 25 27 31 34 37 42 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -41 -42 -39 -33 -10 10 23 30 19 23 18 28 25 35 30 50 200 MB DIV 14 8 6 11 11 6 12 24 30 17 53 41 88 56 94 49 66 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 2 2 3 6 7 5 1 LAND (KM) 860 879 899 937 975 1082 1195 1324 1435 1541 1636 1708 1796 1821 1928 2000 2066 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.3 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.7 167.9 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.4 170.5 171.8 173.0 174.2 175.3 176.2 177.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 49 52 54 61 55 46 44 38 33 36 43 46 51 46 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 36. 41. 44. 46. 50. 53. 56. 60. 64. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 167.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.9% 14.0% 7.3% 4.4% 4.3% 6.4% 10.3% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 23.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##