* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 54 60 64 64 64 66 70 72 76 79 85 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 48 54 60 64 64 64 66 70 72 76 79 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 44 47 50 51 52 52 53 55 57 61 68 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 9 8 16 16 15 15 14 15 17 14 13 14 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 115 202 251 266 263 262 287 292 305 292 285 277 275 250 241 236 264 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 146 147 148 151 154 153 152 149 145 146 152 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 53 54 57 61 64 67 69 70 72 73 71 68 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 13 14 14 16 16 18 21 25 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -33 -38 -45 -42 -25 -3 7 17 4 -2 -3 6 -2 15 19 21 200 MB DIV 13 10 -2 -10 -2 2 11 20 31 10 20 13 34 18 22 15 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 3 4 5 5 5 LAND (KM) 818 822 827 848 870 951 1060 1175 1286 1366 1458 1545 1638 1693 1797 1820 1861 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.4 167.4 167.6 167.8 168.5 169.5 170.6 171.7 172.6 173.6 174.6 175.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 44 45 51 58 54 44 41 38 29 31 39 45 36 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 8. 7. 8. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 24. 30. 34. 34. 34. 36. 40. 42. 46. 49. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 167.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 13.2% 28.5% 19.9% 12.7% 18.1% 13.1% 26.1% 27.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 15.3% 1.0% 0.3% 2.6% 4.5% 6.4% 15.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##