* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 35 37 40 48 52 55 54 55 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 35 37 40 48 52 55 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 30 29 28 28 28 30 32 37 42 47 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 20 18 16 19 16 23 20 18 16 14 13 13 17 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 0 2 -3 0 -6 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 289 279 289 295 289 295 289 295 281 294 290 317 289 296 277 279 278 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 30.6 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 142 144 147 150 150 153 154 161 172 171 171 169 160 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 141 144 146 146 145 147 145 150 169 171 160 147 135 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 53 52 54 55 57 56 59 61 61 66 66 67 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -3 -16 -22 -23 -36 -39 -43 -56 -89 -96 -100 -82 -88 -58 -49 -6 200 MB DIV -1 -9 2 15 14 0 2 12 20 5 9 3 20 4 15 3 -7 700-850 TADV -19 -10 -7 -13 -16 -8 -12 -7 -8 -5 -8 -4 1 1 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 974 864 779 728 616 299 46 107 135 245 250 288 164 70 65 96 130 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.5 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.6 55.2 56.8 58.4 60.0 62.9 65.7 68.4 70.8 73.0 75.1 77.0 78.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 32 49 42 50 57 66 56 55 81 71 62 53 37 38 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 34. 37. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -23. -20. -19. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. -1. -0. 2. 5. 13. 17. 20. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 53.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.9% 8.1% 6.0% 3.1% 7.2% 7.8% 9.3% Logistic: 1.1% 4.6% 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 3.6% 5.5% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 5.7% 3.4% 2.4% 1.3% 3.6% 4.4% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 35 37 40 48 52 55 54 55 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 35 37 40 48 52 55 54 55 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 31 31 33 32 33 35 38 46 50 53 52 53 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 28 27 28 30 33 41 45 48 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT