* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 50 55 58 62 62 60 60 60 59 60 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 50 55 58 62 62 60 60 60 59 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 44 48 51 54 56 55 52 49 46 42 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 5 3 5 3 6 5 8 11 18 21 25 33 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -5 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 151 167 183 181 145 137 110 161 232 230 246 245 252 244 249 257 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 149 149 148 147 144 141 137 139 137 135 139 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 56 58 62 63 67 67 69 67 67 66 67 68 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 60 61 60 56 41 35 19 26 14 1 -16 -27 -32 -31 -32 200 MB DIV 57 65 61 35 29 43 39 32 14 13 0 -21 -12 12 15 32 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 0 0 3 2 4 3 4 5 8 2 LAND (KM) 2455 2405 2339 2266 2194 2002 1778 1556 1355 1158 974 788 598 419 274 200 206 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.6 135.3 137.0 138.9 140.8 142.5 144.2 145.8 147.4 149.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 15 16 21 17 14 12 17 18 19 17 9 20 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 27. 27. 25. 25. 25. 24. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.80 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.19 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.94 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.8% 18.6% 14.4% 0.0% 18.2% 16.4% 20.8% Logistic: 2.7% 17.2% 11.5% 6.0% 5.9% 10.0% 13.2% 6.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 1.0% Consensus: 4.5% 13.5% 10.1% 6.8% 2.0% 9.5% 11.0% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##