* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 49 55 60 62 63 63 63 63 62 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 49 55 60 62 63 63 63 63 62 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 44 49 53 53 53 52 49 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 3 1 3 3 6 8 12 17 20 24 30 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 136 149 156 167 184 72 139 173 216 257 261 271 271 261 252 262 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.3 26.9 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 151 150 149 150 148 148 143 141 136 138 136 132 138 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 58 58 61 61 63 61 63 62 61 61 62 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 49 53 54 52 44 22 16 10 18 2 -5 -25 -26 -39 -43 200 MB DIV 60 55 52 61 51 36 38 23 33 9 9 -6 -9 -1 -8 27 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 5 8 10 6 18 LAND (KM) 2355 2393 2432 2448 2394 2234 2018 1791 1559 1338 1132 948 786 638 497 397 375 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.4 131.9 132.3 132.9 133.4 134.9 136.8 138.7 140.7 142.6 144.4 146.0 147.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 19 18 15 21 20 14 12 18 18 19 15 7 18 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 19. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. 32. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.85 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.58 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.24 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 22.6% 17.6% 13.3% 0.0% 17.8% 16.8% 35.4% Logistic: 1.0% 8.2% 4.1% 1.9% 1.4% 5.5% 19.8% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 3.3% 10.8% 7.4% 5.1% 0.5% 7.8% 12.3% 16.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##