* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 71 74 70 60 50 37 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 71 74 70 60 50 37 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 70 68 57 42 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 22 14 11 14 15 24 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -3 -1 -4 -2 5 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 221 220 213 225 295 239 179 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 23.1 17.7 12.6 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 132 130 129 98 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 63 58 50 47 48 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 18 18 19 17 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 76 71 59 14 18 129 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 49 34 37 15 48 47 70 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 31 40 47 30 16 32 89 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1561 1598 1648 1794 1945 2424 1888 1327 777 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.9 30.2 31.8 33.3 37.0 41.3 45.6 49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.4 174.2 173.9 174.5 175.2 178.3 182.1 185.8 189.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 20 24 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 15 CX,CY: 8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -11. -17. -19. -21. -24. -27. -30. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -2. -9. -17. -22. -24. -26. -30. -34. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 5. -5. -15. -28. -35. -41. -46. -53. -61. -70. -77. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.5 174.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##