* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 69 72 78 77 69 49 43 38 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 69 72 78 77 69 49 43 38 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 64 64 62 54 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 23 20 17 17 14 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 0 -2 -7 -2 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 235 225 212 214 230 277 176 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 27.9 26.9 25.9 23.8 17.4 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 152 145 134 126 106 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 67 65 53 52 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 19 17 18 17 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 46 64 76 72 50 28 68 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 85 58 40 43 29 53 43 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 24 37 38 32 20 35 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1728 1670 1626 1648 1684 1954 2445 1856 1271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.8 30.1 33.1 36.9 41.3 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.8 176.0 175.1 174.8 174.4 175.5 178.7 182.7 186.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 19 25 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 14 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -16. -18. -20. -23. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 17. 23. 22. 14. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -35. -42. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.2 176.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##