* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 74 73 74 71 69 67 67 68 69 71 69 69 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 80 76 74 73 74 71 69 67 67 68 69 71 69 69 69 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 72 71 69 68 65 63 61 61 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 14 12 19 15 16 17 16 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 227 215 226 235 221 236 227 240 236 254 241 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 132 135 136 140 145 148 149 149 150 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 128 130 132 136 139 142 142 142 141 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 37 36 37 41 39 40 38 37 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 12 13 10 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 13 10 5 5 0 -16 -19 -25 -53 -57 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 13 10 18 22 2 -12 -24 -33 -25 -9 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 -5 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 2 -2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1104 1048 950 865 793 697 492 226 11 76 37 100 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.6 53.8 55.0 56.2 58.8 61.2 63.6 66.0 68.3 70.6 72.8 75.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 21 24 39 33 43 66 64 61 43 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.3 51.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.57 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 762.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 7.6% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/22/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 5( 16) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 74 73 74 71 69 67 67 68 69 71 69 69 69 70 70 18HR AGO 80 79 77 76 77 74 72 70 70 71 72 74 72 72 72 73 73 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 76 73 71 69 69 70 71 73 71 71 71 72 72 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 68 66 64 64 65 66 68 66 66 66 67 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT