* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 48 51 55 58 59 60 61 64 63 57 57 57 60 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 48 51 55 58 59 60 61 64 63 57 57 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 55 57 58 57 55 49 42 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 3 9 11 19 15 12 5 27 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -2 0 0 7 5 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 302 307 291 292 277 264 259 256 284 274 209 105 317 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.2 28.1 27.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 153 154 154 155 158 156 155 146 145 137 126 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 56 55 56 56 57 60 60 60 68 64 64 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 4 5 6 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 24 17 15 10 -4 -18 -33 -15 24 58 67 37 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 4 9 4 1 5 13 0 0 4 3 58 -15 48 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 6 13 16 15 19 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1885 1898 1912 1934 1958 2004 1999 1953 1904 1843 1802 1774 1771 2196 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 19.2 20.6 22.3 23.9 25.5 27.1 28.7 30.3 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.3 177.6 177.9 178.3 178.6 179.3 179.5 179.2 178.7 177.9 177.1 176.2 175.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 12 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 43 43 41 40 42 46 31 23 25 10 10 4 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. 26. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 24. 23. 17. 17. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 177.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 6.9% 17.7% 12.2% 7.4% 9.4% 8.9% 11.1% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 14.7% 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 1.9% 3.5% 1.5% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##