* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 54 56 56 56 56 56 53 49 50 51 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 54 56 56 56 56 56 53 49 50 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 51 54 56 57 59 60 58 54 48 43 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 12 10 11 8 7 5 8 10 19 29 41 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -5 -3 -4 0 3 15 8 2 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 287 302 305 287 269 295 256 287 298 332 331 332 320 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 152 153 154 153 155 158 158 157 155 149 140 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -52.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.8 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 56 56 57 56 56 56 56 53 62 65 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 36 25 18 12 0 -9 -30 -43 -37 -9 17 44 93 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 7 0 12 11 -6 6 -14 -24 -22 -12 40 10 69 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -4 8 10 24 30 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1877 1881 1886 1912 1939 1993 2031 2037 2016 1983 1930 1888 1859 2253 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.9 22.0 23.1 24.6 26.3 28.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.3 177.5 177.9 178.3 179.1 179.7 179.9 179.8 179.5 178.9 178.2 177.4 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 9 9 14 21 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 43 41 41 44 41 33 25 25 20 10 4 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 13. 9. 10. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 177.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.9% 9.3% 5.5% 3.1% 4.1% 8.2% 26.3% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.0% 2.0% 0.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##