* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 43 48 50 52 53 53 52 50 52 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 43 48 50 52 53 53 52 50 52 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 40 42 43 42 37 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 11 10 8 7 3 8 7 10 30 34 45 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 6 8 10 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 255 273 294 302 290 272 270 263 293 335 355 339 340 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 149 151 153 152 151 153 158 159 158 160 149 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 53 54 55 54 56 54 54 52 49 53 63 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 33 23 17 10 -8 -20 -32 -45 -24 -7 17 34 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 22 10 0 11 6 -2 8 -13 -32 -23 -22 25 21 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 5 17 26 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1909 1906 1903 1917 1933 1998 2045 2076 2082 2060 2013 1978 1947 1850 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.3 177.4 177.7 178.0 178.9 179.6 180.1 180.3 180.2 179.8 179.4 178.9 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 13 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 47 46 46 44 40 39 40 39 36 27 24 26 11 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. 22. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 177.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 5.3% 15.2% 7.9% 4.1% 5.4% 8.9% 29.4% 17.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 12.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##