* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 76 74 72 67 64 61 60 62 62 61 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 76 74 72 67 64 61 60 62 62 61 45 49 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 75 75 74 71 66 62 59 58 58 58 44 48 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 7 15 12 17 15 16 13 17 16 22 16 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 292 280 270 270 268 246 238 245 258 259 266 263 267 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.7 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 127 127 128 136 138 143 149 149 149 152 165 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 120 122 122 124 133 134 139 145 144 144 147 159 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 48 46 45 44 42 40 37 38 39 40 42 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 10 9 6 -4 2 0 -10 -14 -5 -2 -2 0 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 1 2 -7 -6 10 7 -13 -32 -16 -23 -1 2 -4 8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1123 1105 1097 1080 1070 1000 814 682 579 306 60 61 25 0 81 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.9 48.8 49.8 50.8 53.0 55.4 58.0 60.5 63.1 65.7 68.2 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 14 10 10 14 23 34 37 35 49 57 40 56 68 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -15. -13. -13. -14. -13. -10. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.5 47.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.85 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 16.3% 11.7% 9.5% 6.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 12.3% 11.0% 6.0% 2.2% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.3% 8.2% 5.2% 2.8% 4.6% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/21/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 76 76 74 72 67 64 61 60 62 62 61 45 49 51 52 18HR AGO 75 74 74 74 72 70 65 62 59 58 60 60 59 43 47 49 50 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 69 67 62 59 56 55 57 57 56 40 44 46 47 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 61 56 53 50 49 51 51 50 34 38 40 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT