* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032015 08/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 58 67 76 82 86 89 93 93 92 93 90 89 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 58 67 76 82 86 89 93 93 92 93 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 49 59 69 73 75 77 79 81 82 81 81 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 13 12 9 5 2 6 7 5 7 13 11 21 20 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -1 -4 -3 -1 0 2 4 5 2 3 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 72 78 72 65 61 10 357 283 327 301 262 254 261 270 285 272 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 159 156 153 150 150 154 153 151 146 141 142 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 64 65 65 68 71 74 76 74 74 70 67 59 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 21 22 24 26 27 28 31 31 32 35 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 104 106 99 91 84 71 55 37 16 20 25 33 56 62 60 69 66 200 MB DIV 81 80 60 48 30 27 55 63 88 93 108 99 72 35 19 23 47 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 -4 3 9 10 14 18 16 11 9 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1043 927 825 745 696 695 745 684 594 482 385 293 203 194 350 360 404 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.8 152.2 153.5 155.0 156.4 159.3 161.4 162.7 163.3 163.1 162.8 162.3 161.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 13 10 8 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 29 27 31 41 39 57 54 51 54 57 46 26 29 24 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 16. 15. 14. 16. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 28. 38. 46. 52. 56. 59. 63. 63. 62. 63. 60. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 150.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 6.0% 38.6% 17.7% 10.5% 5.0% 15.9% 25.9% 29.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 24.8% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 24.0% 38.9% 22.9% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 THREE 08/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##