* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 70 71 71 69 68 67 68 66 65 64 65 70 72 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 70 71 71 69 68 67 68 66 65 64 65 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 69 70 73 74 71 69 67 65 64 62 62 64 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 2 1 5 12 12 11 14 15 13 12 10 14 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 -3 0 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 341 3 127 294 272 226 258 262 246 227 241 235 252 247 286 262 292 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 122 122 123 127 127 130 138 142 143 147 147 146 149 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 117 117 117 122 122 125 134 139 140 142 141 139 143 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 700-500 MB RH 53 54 54 52 50 48 45 40 43 40 41 42 46 43 45 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 8 9 7 6 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 15 13 11 8 1 4 2 3 -5 2 8 9 20 27 27 200 MB DIV -3 -19 -23 -8 -10 -5 4 -9 5 -16 -31 -28 4 0 -18 -9 -2 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 -1 0 1 4 -3 2 -2 -1 -1 0 -6 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1191 1172 1152 1141 1137 1119 1082 950 760 631 488 242 99 89 67 30 81 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.1 45.9 46.6 47.4 49.2 51.4 53.6 56.1 58.9 61.5 64.0 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 11 11 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 12 18 21 12 12 17 27 42 31 35 57 53 39 49 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.3 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.8 25.9 to 2.2 1.00 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 29.1% 23.5% 23.4% 7.3% 23.0% 20.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 29.9% 29.2% 15.8% 5.5% 13.5% 4.4% 2.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 5.2% 10.0% 1.2% 0.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 21.4% 20.9% 13.5% 4.5% 14.1% 8.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 67 70 71 71 69 68 67 68 66 65 64 65 69 71 18HR AGO 60 59 62 63 66 67 67 65 64 63 64 62 61 60 61 65 67 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 60 61 61 59 58 57 58 56 55 54 55 59 61 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 54 54 52 51 50 51 49 48 47 48 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT