* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 51 54 58 64 67 71 74 73 76 74 75 75 75 74 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 51 54 58 64 67 71 74 73 76 74 75 75 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 57 63 66 67 67 65 64 62 61 61 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 4 3 7 4 7 9 13 15 17 16 16 19 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 -4 -6 0 -2 0 -1 0 -4 1 -2 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 71 44 29 67 114 295 211 229 215 236 230 239 229 241 239 259 251 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 123 123 125 126 129 132 139 142 145 146 148 145 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 120 118 118 119 121 125 128 135 138 141 142 143 140 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 63 58 54 54 53 51 47 45 39 39 34 37 38 44 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 11 13 11 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 4 2 3 10 7 12 7 15 15 9 11 16 26 25 21 28 200 MB DIV 63 54 2 -21 -27 -20 -21 4 11 3 -3 -12 -1 1 6 -9 3 700-850 TADV -13 -9 -7 -4 -2 0 1 4 -5 0 -3 1 -1 2 0 4 5 LAND (KM) 1314 1276 1243 1211 1179 1127 1107 1080 996 814 697 559 292 78 81 26 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.1 43.9 44.7 45.5 47.1 48.8 50.8 53.1 55.6 58.1 60.7 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 10 13 24 15 12 19 26 35 36 34 53 45 38 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 26. 29. 28. 31. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.9 42.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.91 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.46 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.0% 11.0% 8.2% 5.0% 9.9% 13.0% 18.7% Logistic: 4.3% 18.9% 14.8% 9.4% 4.0% 9.8% 7.5% 4.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 12.3% 9.0% 5.9% 3.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/20/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 49 51 54 58 64 67 71 74 73 76 74 75 75 75 74 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 52 56 62 65 69 72 71 74 72 73 73 73 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 50 56 59 63 66 65 68 66 67 67 67 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 48 51 55 58 57 60 58 59 59 59 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT