* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 19 23 26 28 32 25 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 2 1 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 142 147 152 148 152 165 196 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 111 106 100 101 99 96 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 52 51 48 47 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 40 33 19 10 8 0 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 54 45 27 32 23 17 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 1 3 4 -3 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 918 968 1039 1125 1176 1206 1237 1258 1251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.1 25.8 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.4 124.7 125.9 127.1 129.2 130.7 131.8 132.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 12. 10. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -13. -21. -26. -28. -29. -30. -33. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. -6. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -28. -34. -39. -45. -52. -58. -67. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 122.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##