* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/17/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 28 27 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 28 27 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 14 19 23 33 22 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 6 5 1 1 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 189 188 167 169 159 148 144 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.3 25.4 25.2 25.2 24.2 23.8 23.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 128 119 117 117 106 101 101 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 54 51 50 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 13 13 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 78 61 58 48 22 15 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 10 18 32 41 22 22 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 -1 1 3 2 2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 920 960 978 1021 1166 1238 1260 1318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.9 24.5 25.8 27.0 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.8 121.0 122.3 123.6 126.1 128.2 130.1 132.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. -31. -33. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##