* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 35 32 30 26 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 32 32 34 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 236 240 240 244 257 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 139 140 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 58 58 59 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 0 -3 0 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 35 33 38 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 -6 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 316 280 242 219 288 449 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.4 153.0 153.6 154.4 155.2 157.1 159.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 21 21 29 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -21. -26. -29. -31. -32. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -26. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.2 152.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/13/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##