* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 51 44 41 37 31 27 24 21 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 57 51 44 41 37 31 27 24 21 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 49 44 37 31 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 32 30 30 32 41 37 32 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 4 4 3 -1 0 5 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 261 257 251 254 246 254 249 248 250 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 137 139 140 144 144 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 69 68 66 67 68 65 65 59 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 11 8 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 6 0 -2 9 -10 -8 19 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 82 75 55 41 54 16 21 55 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 2 1 0 1 0 -1 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 429 378 328 282 236 146 59 52 184 268 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.6 152.0 152.4 152.8 153.1 154.0 155.1 156.3 157.6 158.9 160.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 26 26 24 20 29 33 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -21. -24. -28. -34. -38. -41. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. -51. -51. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.1 151.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##