* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 64 59 54 46 40 35 33 30 27 26 23 21 19 18 18 V (KT) LAND 75 70 64 59 54 46 40 33 34 31 28 26 24 22 20 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 62 57 48 40 31 31 28 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 33 35 38 36 36 32 36 37 41 39 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 0 5 0 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 263 258 257 257 251 245 248 247 248 256 252 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 137 138 138 141 144 143 144 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 65 64 64 68 67 65 61 61 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -19 -13 -2 -5 2 -4 -10 9 14 35 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 64 71 60 44 52 53 31 36 33 32 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 6 2 1 3 3 1 -1 0 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 460 413 367 321 276 175 59 -17 75 166 211 201 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 20.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.1 151.5 151.8 152.2 152.5 153.3 154.4 155.5 156.7 158.0 159.2 160.5 161.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 29 29 29 30 27 20 21 30 23 22 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -36. -39. -41. -42. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -21. -29. -34. -40. -42. -45. -48. -49. -52. -54. -56. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.3 151.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##