* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 103 103 101 95 85 76 67 58 45 37 28 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 103 103 101 95 85 76 67 58 45 37 28 22 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 90 98 101 101 100 97 93 85 72 60 48 39 31 26 21 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 5 2 1 12 19 35 38 44 49 51 47 49 46 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 -1 -3 1 5 1 1 3 0 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 98 71 78 98 256 239 237 244 256 264 269 272 271 274 282 270 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 144 142 141 141 139 141 139 135 134 136 134 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 60 57 57 58 61 61 56 54 49 47 46 44 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 16 18 16 16 15 14 10 9 7 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 26 32 36 32 27 27 28 14 35 30 26 15 3 -7 -20 200 MB DIV 14 24 29 42 38 41 65 97 53 40 7 -13 -31 -20 -32 -21 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 3 8 10 9 4 5 1 1 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1697 1575 1454 1338 1222 1000 811 659 522 421 335 244 155 63 2 19 29 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.3 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.4 142.5 143.5 144.5 146.4 147.9 149.0 150.0 150.8 151.6 152.6 153.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 16 22 18 24 34 26 23 22 18 17 18 16 10 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 13. 13. 11. 5. -5. -14. -23. -32. -45. -53. -62. -68. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.2 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.22 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.73 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.87 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.8% 35.5% 32.1% 26.7% 20.3% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 54.6% 63.4% 48.3% 54.3% 21.1% 33.9% 7.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 12.0% 18.0% 4.1% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 36.1% 39.0% 28.2% 28.0% 14.1% 18.3% 2.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##