* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 60 65 69 72 73 71 69 64 58 50 46 41 37 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 60 65 69 72 73 71 69 64 58 50 46 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 57 59 64 69 72 72 70 64 56 48 40 33 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 4 2 1 3 4 9 16 25 31 34 34 31 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 5 3 -2 -4 -2 -3 2 2 2 3 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 86 64 54 70 83 29 312 277 219 234 229 231 236 249 256 265 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 142 140 139 135 137 136 135 134 134 132 132 130 130 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 63 62 60 58 56 58 58 55 52 50 45 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 18 19 19 19 19 18 15 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 20 18 21 14 32 36 38 24 34 17 28 31 30 19 27 200 MB DIV 14 24 33 41 25 13 35 54 68 84 72 58 7 -10 -16 -16 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 1 2 6 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2249 2135 2021 1905 1790 1561 1338 1121 934 787 663 565 495 440 386 335 286 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.1 137.2 138.3 139.3 141.3 143.2 145.0 146.5 147.7 148.7 149.5 150.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 15 10 9 12 12 18 25 24 21 18 16 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 0. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 14. 8. 0. -4. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.6 135.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.73 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.33 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 27.4% 25.7% 21.1% 14.7% 25.2% 22.7% 13.6% Logistic: 6.5% 40.9% 18.2% 14.2% 3.3% 17.4% 2.8% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 26.0% 15.0% 11.9% 6.2% 14.5% 8.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##