* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 70 76 78 80 77 76 73 70 64 57 52 44 40 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 70 76 78 80 77 76 73 70 64 57 52 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 66 70 77 82 84 83 79 74 65 55 46 38 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 2 6 5 8 13 21 27 35 37 39 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 -3 -1 -4 0 0 5 2 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 91 85 62 62 64 63 353 324 276 259 244 227 233 254 258 253 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 151 149 145 145 140 136 137 135 132 129 130 132 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 64 64 64 59 57 54 56 59 59 56 50 47 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 16 17 18 16 15 14 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 28 24 21 23 17 35 30 21 23 22 19 24 37 35 33 200 MB DIV 10 16 23 35 38 19 18 29 26 55 70 61 46 7 -23 -22 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 3 7 11 11 2 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2345 2230 2115 1998 1883 1653 1425 1197 1000 847 696 575 468 387 313 243 181 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.2 136.3 137.4 138.5 140.6 142.6 144.5 146.1 147.3 148.5 149.5 150.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 24 23 17 11 16 14 17 26 28 16 11 13 19 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 28. 30. 27. 26. 23. 20. 14. 7. 2. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.7 134.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.57 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 45.0% 34.6% 26.1% 16.5% 41.2% 35.3% 16.6% Logistic: 22.1% 57.6% 32.0% 27.2% 10.3% 29.5% 17.5% 6.9% Bayesian: 5.0% 50.6% 11.5% 4.3% 3.7% 16.7% 6.7% 0.0% Consensus: 15.8% 51.1% 26.0% 19.2% 10.2% 29.2% 19.8% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##