* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 47 48 44 44 48 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 249 254 261 262 268 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 137 138 140 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 40 41 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -15 -17 -20 -22 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 1 -1 -2 -5 -13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 5 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 125 74 45 41 55 330 628 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.2 22.5 23.0 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.2 156.4 157.6 158.9 160.2 163.2 166.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 10 13 17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -9. -21. -36. -49. -58. -62. -64. -66. -69. -77. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -8. -16. -25. -33. -40. -43. -44. -46. -48. -53. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 155.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##